Bulldogs take on Ramblers in Chicago

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/25/2007 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Butler Bulldogs of the Horizon League are currently ranked 14th in the nation, and they hope to continue their dominance of conference opponents in tonight's clash with Loyola- Chicago.

Butler has won its last three games and seven of the last eight to improve to 17-2 overall and 5-1 in Horizon action. The last three victories have all come by 15 or more points, including an 80-59 thrashing of Wisconsin- Green Bay on Saturday.

Loyola has put together back-to-back wins to move to 13-7 overall, and the squad is 4-3 against league opponents. Of the 10 home games that the Ramblers have played, nine have resulted in victory. Saturday's home bout against IPFW ended in a 69-53 triumph.

Butler owns a 41-28 lead in the all-time series with Loyola, and the Bulldogs have won five of the last six meetings.

The key to Butler's success this season has been its ability to play outstanding defense, as it is limiting opponents to just 55.6 ppg on 40.3 percent shooting from the floor. Also, the Bulldogs have committed just 191 turnovers in 19 games, an average of 10 per contest, and they are forcing almost 15 giveaways per outing. The leading scorer for Butler is A.J. Graves, as his 18.6 ppg can be attributed much more to his 98.9 percent shooting from the foul line than his 39.7 percent efficiency from the field. Mike Green adds 13.4 ppg to the mix, and Brandon Crone checks in with 10.6 ppg. Graves was on fire in the victory over UW-Green Bay, as he nailed 5- of-8 three-pointers and all nine foul shots en route to 28 points. The Bulldogs connected on 52.5 percent of their field goal attempts in the clash and missed only one of their 25 free throws.

Four players scored in double figures for Loyola in the win over IPFW. Majak Kou racked up 17 points and rebounds to pace the Ramblers, and Leon Young pitched in 16 points. J.R. Blount tallied 15 points, and Blake Schilb rounded out the group with 13 points. Loyola earned a 41-29 rebounding advantage in that contest and limited IPFW to 39.1 percent shooting from the floor. Schilb is the team's top offensive performer, as he is netting 15.1 ppg. Blount checks in with 14.1 ppg, and Kou is close behind with 13.3 ppg. Young adds 10.4 ppg to the lineup, and he is pulling down 6.4 rpg as well.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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