Division leaders square off in Cincinnati

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of National League divisional front-runners get together for a potential playoff preview tonight when the Central-leading Cincinnati Reds host the East-leading Atlanta Braves in the first of three at Great American Ball Park.

The Reds hold a half-game edge on the St. Louis Cardinals in the Central after taking two of three games from Milwaukee in a series that ended with a 10-2 Reds win on Wednesday.

The Braves, meanwhile, are 2 1/2 games up on the streaking Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia has cut into the lead with an eight-game win streak while the Braves have dropped four of six, including a series finale to Washington Thursday.

Cincinnati sends emerging ace Johnny Cueto to the mound in the opener in search of fifth straight win and with a chance to equal his career high in victories. The third-year Dominican export improved to 10-2 on the season with eight innings of scoreless four-hit ball in a 7-0 defeat of Houston on July 24.

The triumph lowered his earned run average to 3.18 and marked his sixth straight unbeaten start since a 1-0 loss at Seattle on June 18. His opposition batting average this season - .247 - is 12 points below his career clip and 15 points better than the .262 average he allowed last season.

For the Braves, right-hander Kris Medlen makes his second straight start after a trip to the bullpen and seeks his first win since July 7. A 24-year-old Californian, Medlen tossed six innings and allowed five runs on eight hits while getting a no-decision in Atlanta's 10-5 win at Florida on July 24.

It was his first game-opening assignment after four straight trips from the bullpen, during which he allowed six hits and four runs across five innings between July 11 and 21.

The former 10th round draft pick - 2006 - is 4-1 in 15 road games this season with a 4.05 ERA in 53 1/3 innings.

He has never faced the Reds.

On Thursday, Ian Desmond and Adam Dunn each homered, as the Nationals edged the Braves, 5-3, in the rubber match of a three-game series.

Derek Lowe (10-9) took the loss after allowing four runs on five hits in five innings. Matt Diaz hit a two-run homer for the Braves.

On Wednesday, Brandon Phillips hit his fourth career grand slam while Joey Votto went 3-for-5 with a home run, powering the Reds to a 10-2 victory over Milwaukee.

Phillips, who had two hits, slugged his first grand slam since 2007. Miguel Cairo went 2-for-4 with a walk and two RBI for the Reds, who went 4-2 on their road trip.

Cincinnati scored its runs in bursts, plating five in the sixth and eighth innings. Rookie Travis Wood (1-1) benefited from the first surge, getting his first major league win after allowing two runs in five innings. He gave up five hits, walked one and struck out six.

Atlanta swept a two-game set from the Reds earlier in the year after the Reds won six of the nine matchups in 2009.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

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