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03/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers have goaltender Michael Leighton to thank for keeping them alive in the postseason race. However, the team will be without its waiver-wire gem when it goes for its first win at Dallas in over 13 years in this evening's matchup versus the Stars.
The Flyers signed Ray Emery this past offseason to be their No. 1 netminder and also added Brian Boucher to serve as the backup. Emery, though, battled injuries throughout the season and is currently out with a hip problem and Boucher has struggled at times. That has left the bulk of the starting duties to Leighton, who was claimed off waivers from Carolina on Dec. 15.
Leighton responded by going 16-5-2 with a 2.48 goals-against average in 27 games with the Flyers, making his 15th straight start on Tuesday night at Nashville. The netminder did not finish the game, though, as he exited the first period with a high ankle sprain that has him day-to-day.
Boucher replaced Leighton, who is slated to have an MRI on Thursday, and gave up a goal just 20 seconds into his appearance. However, he settled down to make 24 saves and help the Flyers earn a point in a 4-3 shootout setback.
Jeff Carter scored 1:21 into the game, but the Flyers trailed 3-1 after the first period. Simon Gagne and Chris Pronger then scored 3:04 apart in the third frame to force OT before the Predators scored the lone shootout goal.
Gagne scored for the seventh time in nine games for the Flyers, who are 3-2-2 over their last seven games but fell a point back of the Montreal Canadiens for the Eastern Conference's sixth seed.
Boucher is likely to receive his first start since Dec. 21 tonight, and Tuesday's relief appearance was just his fourth since that span.
"I don't have a lot of evidence to go on as far as playing-wise in the last three months, but I've played in a couple games here since the break in some relief roles, and I feel good about myself," Boucher told the Flyers' Web site. "I anticipate doing a good job with our team continuing to push forward."
Philadelphia fell to 0-1-0 on a four-game road trip and have dropped four straight as the guest. The Flyers will try to snap that skid in Dallas, where they haven't won since Dec. 6, 1996. Philadelphia is 0-4 with a pair of ties in six trips since.
The Flyers did post a 6-3 home win over the Stars on Jan. 12, getting a goal and an assist from Gagne as well as 27 saves by Leighton. That gave the Flyers back-to-back wins over the Stars since going 0-2-0 with three ties in the previous five meetings between the clubs.
Marty Turco allowed five goals on 19 shots in the loss and was given the night off on Tuesday versus San Jose. It didn't matter who was in net, though, as the Stars exploded for a season-high goal output in an 8-2 triumph to make head coach Marc Crawford the 15th coach in NHL history to reach 500 victories.
Mike Ribeiro and Brenden Morrow both scored a pair of goals, including a short-handed tally by each player, and had two assists apiece, while Brad Richards had a goal and two helpers. Brandon Segal scored for the fifth time in seven games since being acquired off waivers from Los Angeles and Kari Lehtonen stopped 45 shots in his second start with Dallas.
"We had some bounces go our way, and got chances early," Morrow told Dallas' Web site. "Kari gave us some confidence and made some really big saves, and we snapped the puck around pretty good. I don't know where it came from, but pretty much every scoring opportunity we were able to execute."
Dallas, which is expected to start Lehtonen again tonight, won for only the second time in eight games since the Olympic break and are seven points behind Detroit for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Stars snapped a four-game home losing streak and are 1-1-1 on a six-game homestand.
<< Surging Wild head to Nashville for key late-season clash
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both the Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators are riding
three-game winning streaks, but only one club is in the playoff picture.
The Wild look to continue their playoff push this evening at Bridgestone Arena
versus the
<< Devils visit surging Maple Leafs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Although it's highly unlikely to result in a playoff spot,
the Toronto Maple Leafs have put together one of their best stretches of the
season over the past week. They'll try to sustain that newfound momentum into
a three-gam
<< Thrashers host Sens in battle between struggling clubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of struggling Eastern Conference inhabitants get
together for a key late-season matchup tonight at Philips Arena, where the
Atlanta Thrashers hope to strengthen their fading playoff hopes when they take
on the visiting
<< Again without Ovechkin, Capitals visit Hurricanes
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Capitals hardly seemed to miss Alex
Ovechkin on Tuesday night and the Southeast Division champs will shoot for
another win this evening without the Russian superstar.
Ovechkin will complete a two-game suspen
Irish and Monarchs open tournament play in New Orleans >>
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thanks to a late run down the stretch, the
Notre Dame Fighting Irish earned the six seed in the South Region and will
open the NCAA Tournament with a first round meeting against the 11th-seeded
Old Dominion Mo
Hoyas and Bobcats clash in Midwest Regional >>
Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 14th-seeded Ohio University Bobcats are
out to continue their magical run tonight, as they lock up with the third-
seeded Georgetown Hoyas in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at the
Dunkin' Donuts Cen
No. 2 seed Kansas State begins tournament play against North Texas >>
Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Expecting big things in the 72nd NCAA
Tournament, the Kansas State Wildcats begin play in their 24th appearance in
the event as they tangle with the North Texas Mean Green at the Ford Center in
Oklahoma City
No. 1 seed Kentucky opens NCAA Tournament against 16th-seeded ETSU >>
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats begin play
in the 2010 NCAA Tournament with first-round clash against the 16th-seeded
East Tennessee State Buccaneers in the East Region.
The winner of this clash will take
MySportsbook.com favors Bears, Bengals, Chargers and Colts to remain perfect
LAS VEGAS , Sept. 28 - Two big match-ups of undefeated teams have fans salivating at the Week Four schedule in the NFL. The Chicago Bears stifling defense looks to provide a less than hospitable welcome to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a battle of two 3-0 teams in the NFC conference. In the AFC, the San Diego Chargers (2-0) head to Maryland to face the surprising Baltimore Ravens (3-0) as both try to keep pace atop the conference standings. Betting Lines makers at MySportsbook.com, online sportsbook and casino, have set the Bears as 3.5 point favorites while the Chargers are a 2.5 point bet.
Of the three remaining undefeated teams, only one, New Orleans, enters this week's game as an underdog. Despite an emotional and resounding win over Atlanta on Monday night, the Saints are a 7.5 point underdog against the struggling Carolina Panthers. Indianapolis looks to stay perfect when they face the New York Jets as a 9 point road favorite while the Cincinnati Bengals are a 6 point favorite at home to the New England Patriots.
Six teams enter the week still looking for their first win, with a seventh, Tampa Bay, on a bye week. The prospect of dropping another game would not bode well for a potential playoff run. Since 1990, just three teams -- the 1992 Chargers, 1995 Detroit Lions and 1998 Buffalo Bills -- have overcome losing their first three games of the season to earn a postseason berth. And only the Chargers managed to accomplish the feat after starting 0-4.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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