Jockey Club Gold Cup features "Ron" and Curlin

Horseracing Betting Lines

09/28/2007 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunday's $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park has attracted a field of seven including leading older thoroughbred Lawyer Ron and Preakness Stakes winner Curlin. The 1 1/4 mile event is an important test leading to the Breeders' Cup Classic with the winner gaining automatic entry to the $5 million race.

Lawyer Ron, already in the Classic with his Whitney Handicap victory, goes after his third straight win this year for owner Hines Racing. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the four-year-old will start from post six with John Velazquez again in the saddle.

The chestnut colt is coming off a win in the Woodward at Saratoga and has established himself as the top older thoroughbred this year. Lawyer Ron has career earnings of more than $2.6 million, winning half of his 24 lifetime starts.

"I think Lawyer Ron in the Whitney and the Woodward has sort of separated himself from most of the horses that are in training right now," Pletcher said. "I mean his track record in the Whitney was a superb race and the Woodward was right along with it so I mean any of the three year olds are going to have to take a step forward to get up to that level and of course a lot of them, that's what we're going to be finding out about."

Stepping up to take on older horses for the first time is Preakness champ Curlin. Coming off a disappointing third in the Haskell Invitational, the three-year-old has lost his last two starts, both as the favorite.

Robby Albarado is back to ride for trainer Steve Asmussen and will break from post five. Albarado was aboard Mineshaft to win the 2003 edition. Curlin has won four of seven career starts, all in 2007, for better than $1.9 million.

The likely third choice is Suburban Handicap winner Political Force. The four- year-old will start from post three with Cornelio Velasquez returning to ride.

Political Force is coming off a fifth place finish behind Lawyer Ron in the Woodward at Saratoga. The colt was second in the Met Mile to Corinthian when Lawyer Ron was the beaten favorite in third.

Trained by Allen Jerkens, Political Force has won four of 16 career starts for $532,232. This year he has earned $445,747 with three wins in seven starts. Jerkens won the Gold Cup in 1973 with Prove Out, 1975 with Group Plan and 1998 with Wagon Limit.

Here is the complete field for the race post position order: Brother Bobby, Stewart Elliott; Sun King, Alan Garcia; Political Force, Cornelio Velasquez; Malibu Moonshine, Channing Hill; Curlin, Robby Albarado; Lawyer Ron, John Velazquez and Indy Wind, Rafael Bejarano.

The 89th running of the Jockey Club Gold Cup has a scheduled post-time of 5:45 p.m. (et) and will be televised on ESPN.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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