McClure's last-second layup sends Duke plast Clemson

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/26/2007 - Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David McClure dropped in a layup just before time expired, as No. 10 Duke edged past 19th-ranked Clemson, 68-66, in a thrilling Atlantic Coast Conference matchup at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

The Blue Devils (17-3, 4-2 ACC) led by 11 heading into the second half, but had to escape a late miscue to down Clemson (18-3, 4-3) for the 20th straight time.

A pair of free throws by Gerald Henderson put the Blue Devils ahead 66-61 with 12.7 seconds left in the game. Having already missed a pair of three-pointers leading up to Henderson's free throws, the Tigers elected to go for two as Duke allowed Vernon Hamilton to drive the lane for an easy basket.

Miscommunication by the Duke players caused Josh McRoberts to throw the resulting inbound away, and the turnover went right to Hamilton, who drilled a three to even things at 66-66 with 4.4 ticks on the clock.

The Blue Devils had enough time on the clock as Jon Scheyer took the inbounds pass to center court before spotting a wide open McClure in the lane, who was able to get off his layup before time expired.

McRoberts ended with 17 points and 12 rebounds for the Blue Devils, who won their fourth straight since suffering a road setback to Georgia Tech on January 10.

Greg Paulus and DeMarcus Nelson both ended with 13 points. Nelson also had eight rebounds. Scheyer had 12 points in the win, while McClure had eight, none more important than his final two.

Hamilton led Clemson with 21 points and five boards, while James Mays donated 13 points. C.K. Rivers chipped in with 12 points as the Tigers have lost three of four since winning their first 17 games to start the season.

Duke led by a healthy nine points midway through the second half, as a three- pointer by Paulus made it 53-44 with 10:08 remaining.

Clemson refused to quit and whittled their deficit down to 55-52 after a Hamilton layup with 6:53 left. Duke later upped its lead back to eight, 60-52, but eight straight by the Tigers evened the game with 3:31 on the clock.

The Blue Devils shot a healthy 48.4 percent from the floor in the first half and outrebounded Clemson 20-10 en route to taking a 36-25 lead at the half.

Down by one at 23-22, Henderson put Duke in front on a three-pointer with 4:56 left on the clock. Later, McRoberts rebounded his own miss and drained a jumper to extend the Blue Devils' lead to 29-23 with just over three minutes remaining.

Cliff Hammonds then knocked down a pair from the line with 2:38 to go, but those were the last points the Tigers would see in the half as Duke netted the final seven points.

Game Notes

Clemson ended the game at 45.5 percent from the floor and an impressive 90.9 percent (10-of-11) from the free throw line. Duke shot 41.4 percent overall from the field and ended 15-of-18 from the charity stripe...Duke held the rebounding edge at 40-24...In addition to now 20 straight losses overall to the Blue Devils, Clemson has now lost 10 in a row at Duke. The Tigers' last win against Duke came on January 7, 1997 and their last victory at Cameron Indoor Stadium was in 1995.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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