Schalke edges Stuttgart to grab first

Soccer Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - Gelsenkirchen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Kuranyi scored his 14th goal of the season to lead Schalke to a 2-1 win over Stuttgart on Friday and into first place in Germany's Bundesliga.

Schalke moved one point ahead of Bayern Munich, which can reclaim the top spot Saturday when Freiburg visits the Allianz Arena.

Edu and Kuranyi scored in the first 10 minutes of the second half at Veltins- Arena, a span that also included Serdar Tasci's goal for Stuttgart.

Edu replaced Jefferson Farfan to start the second half and scored less than a minute after entering when he slotted past Jens Lehmann to the bottom left.

Tasci headed home a pass from Zdravko Kuzmanovic in the 50th to pull Stuttgart level, but Kuranyi answered with the game-winner in the 55th. Heiko Westermann delivered the pass to Kuranyi deep inside the area and he finished from close range to move into a tie for the Bundesliga scoring lead.

Bayern had its 18-game unbeaten streak in all competitions snapped Tuesday at Fiorentina in a 3-2 loss but still advanced to the last eight in the Champions League on away goals after the aggregate finished 4-4.

Bayern just moved atop the Bundesliga two weeks ago but a 1-1 tie against Koln allowed Schalke to move into the lead after the opening game of the weekend.

The Munich club has matches against Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen over the next two weeks, and can't afford to drop points this week against Freiburg.

"We'd like to pull clear," Thomas Muller told Bayern's website. "What we have to do is win our matches and maybe open up a small gap."

Bayern was forced to use a new defense against Fiorentina, and it did show at times, but 17-year-old David Alaba played extremely well at left back. Diego Contento could return to the lineup Saturday after missing the midweek game in Italy with a knee problem, and one of those two teenagers will start.

Coach Louis Van Gaal will have selection problems this weekend with defenders Martin Demichelis and Christian Lell, striker Mario Gomez, midfielders Franck Ribery, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Hamit Altintop all out.

Captain Mark van Bommel is also doubtful, which would leave central midfield in the hands of Anatoliy Tymoshchuk and Danijel Pranjic.

"It's good we have so many great players in the squad, which means it won't be a problem," Muller said.

Also Saturday, Bochum hosts Borussia Dortmund, Mainz hosts Koln, Hertha Berlin hosts Nurnberg, Monchengladbach hosts Wolfsburg and Hannover hosts Eintracht.

On Sunday, Hoffenheim hosts Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen hosts Hamburg.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

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