Tiago holds on to win Goodwood Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

09/30/2007 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Santa Anita Derby winner Tiago made a successful return to Santa Anita Park to capture Saturday's $500,000 Goodwood Stakes. The win gives the colt automatic entry into the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic as part of the "Win and You're In" program.

The 1 1/8 mile Goodwood lost some of its luster with the absence of defending champ Lava Man. He was scratched in order to run in next Sunday's $250,000 Oak Tree Mile on the grass. "The major factor was that it would give him an extra week," said trainer Doug O'Neill.

The Goodwood, conducted for the first time on the all-weather surface, went off with a field of eight after the scratch of both Lava Man and Porfido. Leading the field around the first turn and into the backstretch was Wanna Runner.

Wanna Runner led the field by two lengths up the backstretch with A.P. Xcellent second. 2-1 co-favorites Lewis Michael and Tiago were running in third and fourth, respectively.

Heading into the far turn Lewis Michael took a short lead with A.P. Xcellent and Awesome Gem to the inside. Tiago was gaining along the rail as the field entered the stretch.

At the top of the stretch Tiago had a short lead over Awesome Gem as the two left the field behind. The two leaders battled down the stretch until Tiago stuck his nose out at the wire.

Awesome Gem was second followed by Big Booster, Lewis Michael, A.P. Xcellent, Hello Sunday, Arson Squad and Wanna Runner. The final time was 1:46.93, just one-fifth of a second off the stakes record.

Owned by Mr. and Mrs. Jerry Moss, Tiago was facing older horses for the first time in the Goodwood. The three-year-old, trained by John Shirreffs, was ridden Mike Smith who was aboard for the Santa Anita Derby victory.

Tiago earned $300,000 with the win to bring his career bankroll to more than $1.1 million. The colt has won four times in eight career starts. He was seventh in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Belmont Stakes. Most recently Tiago won the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park.

Tiago returned $6.60, $3.40 and $2.80. Awesome Gem paid $3.40 and $2.60, and Big Booster paid $6.00 to show.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

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With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

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The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

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